The bros from tech and auto companies have talked a very convincing game for a while now about how autonomous vehicles will save lives.
And it’s a good talking point because just about anything would be an improvement over the shockingly distracted drivers unleashed all over our roads.
But their true hurdle may arrive in the form of public opinion. It’s not surprising that the public doesn’t really want AVs yet because few have experienced them. That said, the fact remains that they still don’t want AVs.
Billions of dollars will be lost by many automakers that continue to invest in autonomous and electric vehicles while consumer buy-in remains low, a study from consulting firm AlixPartners says.
An additional $61 billion has been set aside for autonomous vehicle technologies — but consumers say they are only willing to pay about $2,300 extra for autonomy. Current costs are around $22,900 per vehicle.
John Hoffecker, global vice chairman at AlixPartners, told reporters this presents challenges and risks.
“We are moving from an internal-combustion world where people buy their own cars to a world where you’re going to have electric being the dominance of it, and autonomous being a key driver of it,” Hoffecker said. “What autonomous does is changes things in our view even more than what electric does or anything else we’ve seen before.”
The study says the global auto market will grow at an annual rate of 2.4 percent through 2025, dragging behind expected worldwide GDP growth of 3.3 percent.
One of the firm’s consumer surveys found 22.5 percent of Americans are “likely” to purchase a plug-in electric vehicle.
Another downside is an increased consumer adoption of autonomous vehicles results in the cannibalization of retail sales in the U.S. to 1.6 million units in 2030 with the use of robotaxis.
There is still not enough transparent discussion about making AVs shared fleets, although the line about robotaxis is encouraging. If the focus of AVs is getting them into consumer hands, we could be in for a whole lot of trouble. But if they become transit-like vehicles, we could be in for a very exciting transportation future.
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