The jury is still out on just how much the rise in online-shopping deliveries is affecting road traffic.
When it comes to delivery and the services available to us online, there’s no denying that demand is growing in the world of online orders. With industry front-runners like Amazon and Google already throwing themselves into offering same-day services and retail stores starting to follow in their footsteps, the concept of ordering and receiving your order on the same day is quickly becoming more and more widely accepted. Even searches on a parcel-delivery comparison site are starting to bend towards faster delivery services.
The rise of faster delivery
Same-day deliveries are the perfect way for consumers to combine the convenient experience of ordering online with the immediate access to products that a bricks-and-mortar store could give them. For those willing to pay the extra fees, same-day delivery cuts out the need to travel to a store for items that they need that day – adding accessibility to retail for those who may have limited mobility or limited time.
In the U.S., the parcel-delivery industry is expected to grow 9 percent annually, to more than $343 billion globally by 2020. According to a study by Accenture, 80 percent of retailers are already seeing a positive impact on customer satisfaction when they offer a number of delivery options to their shoppers, meaning same-day delivery and other efficient delivery-service offerings are likely to increase with this.
In addition to this, 77 percent of retailers are set to increase investment in their delivery options. This same study also showed that consumers are beginning to demand a better service for their parcel deliveries, meaning they will become in control of how, when, and where their parcels are likely to arrive.
With the demand for fast delivery on the rise, it is highly likely that we’re set to see more and more growth around the world in the number of businesses offering same-day delivery options.
The traffic implications of same-day delivery
According to 2015 forecasts from the UK Department for Transport, national traffic in the UK is set to increase under a huge number of scenarios, with overall traffic set to grow anywhere between 19 percent and 55 percent by 2040. With vans making up 14 percent of traffic in 2010, the department forecasted that, due to the rise in UK internet shopping, vans will begin to make up 21 percent of traffic by 2040.
Van mileage is also expected to see a huge increase, with the 2040 forecast suggesting an increase of 79 percent. In comparison, car mileage is forecasted to only grow by 9 percent. It follows that an increase in same-day delivery services provided by e-commerce sites will only increase the levels of traffic on UK roads to more than what the predictions currently suggest.
Not only will road infrastructure be unable to cope – unless major roadworks are implemented – but the increase in vehicles and miles traveled will cause pollution to grow. Despite the Europe 2020 strategy emphasizing smart, sustainable, and inclusive growth, a larger number of vehicles on the roads is going to halt the strategy’s plan for a 20 percent increase in energy efficiency.
On the other hand, the UK’s announcement that it is set to ban the sale of all diesel and petrol cars and, more importantly, vans by 2040 could make this space very interesting. In addition to this, ministers are set to introduce charges for vehicles entering “clean-air zones.” This is likely to lead to a number of residential areas in towns and more remote locations being almost unable to access the same kind of same-day delivery services available today. While drones and other technologies may take over the delivery world, the likelihood of this being implemented at a faster rate than the air-pollution clean-up is slim.
In the U.S., however, there doesn’t appear to be as much governmental input on tackling climate change, since the country pulled out of the Paris climate agreement back in June. This makes it clear that the U.S. is not too interested, at least for now, in dealing with the high levels of toxicity in the air as a result of pollution from traffic. That means parcel-delivery services in the U.S. are unlikely to face much new regulation.
For consumers, the Accenture study mentioned above showed that they are are beginning to look for options that allow for anytime, secure delivery from pickup locations and lockers. This shows that while same-day delivery is likely to still have an impact on traffic and pollution, it may not be as many initially feared. This would mean that the delivery van would be able to bulk transport a huge number of parcels to one central pick-up location, as opposed to continually trying to deliver to individual houses.
So, society-wise, what should we think about same-day deliveries?
While companies such as Amazon, Google, and Macy’s, to name a few, are proving that same-day delivery is possible, the question of it being viable as an overall concept is entirely different.
Economically, same-day delivery doesn’t always make a lot of sense to retailers. To cover the costs of shipping out a delivery then and there, they’d need to charge a high delivery fee, something only a small minority might be willing to pay. There is a far higher interest in free delivery than same-day delivery, and so the costs of shipping aren’t covered by the demand in place for same-day delivery.
Businesses would have to make sure they have sufficient stock at every warehouse for each area, meaning that storage space and sophisticated planning software is a must – and just another cost for a company.
Same-day delivery is arguably a natural progression in the world of logistics and shipping, especially when it comes to having a competitive edge. The question is, however, whether our transportation and logistics services can truly handle the demand.
Can we deal with the congestion and pollution that extra vans, trucks, and lorries on the road could cause? Only time will tell. As it stands currently, however, same-day delivery is a mostly niche service available in only a few select areas, meaning it’s difficult to tell just what effect this service could have in the future.
Photo of Victoria, British Columbia, traffic by John Luton/Flickr.