This is Part 1 of a series on how autonomous vehicles could affect U.S. society.
Driverless trucks and cars are likely coming soon. They are envisioned to save time and money and help the environment – but they may also throw millions out of work.
In a society that largely identifies worth through what one does, the economic shock may be matched by the social one. In the shorter term, the safety of these cars must be ensured before bringing them online, while it is vital to cushion working people. In the longer term, driverless trucks, taxis, and buses are just one wave in a tsunami of automation likely to challenge notions of the meaning of work and, indeed, of human existence itself.
For the Teamsters Union, the shorter term is prominent.
“Why is it a robot-car apocalypse?” asked Kara Deniz, senior communications coordinator for the Teamsters, in a phone interview. “Why can’t we have a conversation about what can happen to protect workers?”
Representing nearly 600,000 truckers, among some 3 million in the United States, the Teamsters recently testified before Congress that it is important to take it slow before allowing massive numbers of autonomous trucks to flood our roads. According to one estimate, 1.8 million truck drivers are at risk of losing their jobs, perhaps beginning in the next five to 10 years.
“The millions of workers who make their livelihood in these industries will have an active role to play in shaping the future of their jobs and their industries,” said Teamsters President James P. Hoffa. “It is vital that Congress ensure that any new technology is used to make transportation safer and more effective, not used to put workers at risk on the job or destroy livelihoods and chip away at the middle class.”
Unions are urging caution.
“We have concerns over increasing levels of automation and what that means for drivers,” Deniz told me. “We’re not luddites. We embrace technology,” yet it needs to be used to improve workers lives, she said.
Rather than rush into change at the behest of companies who may be thinking of immediate profit, the Teamsters advocate careful consideration of employment and safety issues. The recent move to ride-hailing services such as Uber and Lyft provides a cautionary note. It may have provided a vital service but did so at an expense to existing jobs while neglecting such issues as insurance.
The Teamsters Union hopes for a more deliberative approach regarding driverless vehicles. “We want full transparency of the testing process,” Deniz said. She advocates careful review of steps needed for safety as automation ramps up.
Immediate safety features, such as braking to prevent accidents, are, of course, a social and economic good, and are already highly advanced. The next step may be full autonomy on freeways, while human drivers will be needed in complex urban settings. Still, the vehicle will do the driving for large stretches.
Deniz explained that “certain regulations regarding safeguarding roads, rest time, breaks” will need to be carefully considered once drivers are able to spend “24 or 36 hours in a truck.”
Public comfort as individuals encounter automated trucks is also a consideration, especially early on. People could get stressed out by an “80,000-pound truck that’s careening down a highway,” Deniz said.
With platoons, for instance of four trucks programmed to autonomously link together in a convoy, the concerns are multiplied. Not only might truck platoons make the condition of roads worse, but AVs must be able to cope with conditions such as poor lane markings and potholes. The Teamsters advocate full study of safety conditions before driverless trucks are deployed.
Cybersecurity is perhaps an even a larger safety issue. Deniz pointed to the havoc caused by hackers attacking credit institutions. Put these together with the danger of vehicle attacks and major damage looms. Deniz mentioned “what happened in New York not that long ago, with people plowing into crowds. What happens if you have a platoon of three or four trucks in a convoy,” hacked and programmed to cause maximum havoc?
An MIT Technology Review article even suggests that a few out of millions of angry unemployed truckers might find ways to attack autonomous trucks, explaining that AVs “will have to anticipate and defend against a full spectrum of malicious attackers wielding both traditional cyberattacks and a new generation of attacks based on so-called adversarial machine learning.” Ensuring a smooth transition to AVs with a minimum of social disruption might be one way to avert such attacks.
Deniz did point to a working model in which the Teamsters are partnering with the tech company Marble to provide mini-robot delivery vehicles in San Francisco. The idea is to re-train workers to supervise and take care of the robots. Such a cooperative approach may offer a way forward on wider adoption of AVs.
Still, it seems likely that eventually these innovations will lead to shorter working hours for humans – otherwise, for one, how can companies save money? How to handle this transition is fraught with uncertainty.
“There is a big value to work,” Deniz said. “Talk to any truck driver. They are into what they do – it’s something that they’ve always wanted to do.”
Should driverless cars eventually be given the green light and take over huge portions of trucking, taxiing, and bus driving, the first question is what will happen to the workers economically. The second is what will happen socially; what will give meaning to people’s lives.
Photo of a kid who may not much remember a time when there was such a thing as human truck drivers, by Brian Smith/Flickr.