England’s National Travel Survey (NTS) shows a decline in car trips and vehicle miles traveled (VMT) per head since 2002. Despite job growth, commuter trips are down overall, again resulting in a reduction of vehicle mileage. The youngest cohorts are applying for drivers’ licenses and becoming car owners later and in lower numbers than the previous generations.
So can we declare a major victory for transportation demand management – battles still to be won, but a turning point reached?
Not yet. Other studies of the data from the NTS suggest more people are dependent upon just one mode, usually the car; that the fewer trips for purposes like shopping, errands, and visiting friends are mainly due to a reduction in short distance trips; and that the reduction in trips may also indicate underemployment and less human interaction, particularly for young people.
The NTS might not collect enough holistic travel data to help us make sense of these confusing results. Although respondent samples are determined by geography, there is little geographic context in terms of land uses, public realm, or environmental quality.
The NTS can’t tell us everything, but the findings suggest that there is a connection between teleworking and not driving alone for non-work trips.
Naturally, a huge component of driving less is very much dependent upon the built environment, particularly walkable local amenities. But the NTS data still suggests there is potential to influence travel behavior in relatively walkable communities.
For example, my research shows that more people are rail commuting and telecommuting (while car and bus commuting are falling) and that those who say they regularly telecommute (at least once a week) are also more likely than other groups to say their regular commute mode is rail. They are more likely to record more short walk trips per person than the general population, and most of these trips are for purposes other than commuting.
Finally, telecommuters make a similar number of trips (by all modes) per person than those who do not regularly telecommute, but with the reduction in commuting trips comes an increase in business trips, school runs, errands, and to participate in sports or recreational activities.
Thanks to the internet, more people have the opportunity to work from home than ever before. Teleworkers also take trains and walk in their local neighborhood than the general population. Telecommuters still make a similar number of journeys to the population at large, but for non-commuting purposes.
Thus, telecommuting needs to be encouraged (or telecommuters encouraged to live) in mixed-use neighborhoods with plenty of activities and services locally so that online work can be balanced with healthy, sustainable pedestrian access to as many other activities and services as possible.
The NTS sample sizes and information about local land uses might not be sufficient to determine if this is already happening, but there is definitely enough data to say that, with vision and planning, it can.
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