While it’s impossible to predict when, North Korea will open up one day. Car companies will likely try to take advantage of this, advertising their products as a symbol of the country’s newfound freedom. But if the people decide to stand up for that freedom, perhaps – with some international assistance – they can develop the world’s first post-car urban transportation systems, skipping the automobile age and serving as a model for other nations to follow.
Working with the Kim regime is futile
As long as Kim Jong-un or any of his relatives are in charge, North Korea will remain the totalitarian, impoverished country it is. Dependent on informal Jangmadang black markets, the people will continue doing their best to survive. As part of this effort, entrepreneurial people will continue to operate and invest in the semi-private intercity bus system and local taxicab options that have emerged in recent years to fill chasms in the state-run transportation network.
Meanwhile, Kim’s sister Yo-jong enjoyed a high speed Korea Train Express (KTX) ride from Seoul to Pyeongchang during her delegation’s travels to the Winter Olympics earlier this year, inspiring her brother to invite South Korean President Moon Jae-in to invest in a massive overhaul of North Korea’s national rail network. The Trump Administration expressed support for this proposal during the recent summit in Singapore.
But in reality, despite the country’s hard-working labor force, international investments in North Korea tend to end in disaster for everyone involved – except the regime, that is. Kent Boydston, an alumnus of UC San Diego and expert on North Korea, discussed these ill-fated ventures, including the government’s de-facto seizure of Egypt-based Orascom’s telecommunication network a few years ago and its continued failure to pay for Volvo cars it imported – in the 1970s.
“If you invest in North Korean infrastructure, you could get a lot of productivity gains,” Boydston said. “But they’ve scared foreign investors before.”
The Demilitarized Zone has stopped military forces for 65 years. When it’s gone, can the people stop car companies?
The Kim dynasty won’t stay in power forever, and when regime change does occur – be it in one year or in 50 – North Korea’s transportation future will become a lot more promising. Many aspects of mobility in the country will likely evolve to resemble its nearby neighbors, especially if unification with South Korea occurs relatively early in the economic reform process. This would be excellent for the population, no question – think world-class subways, ultra-frequent Bus Rapid Transit, high speed intercity rail, and lots of bikeshare.
But if North Korean transportation planners follow their neighbors’ approaches to the letter, cars would also inevitably arrive by the millions and come to dominate urban space, bringing the hermit kingdom the same congestion, crashes, and general annoyance inherent to existing surface transportation in the rest of the world.
While there aren’t many cars north of the DMZ currently, there already is an allure surrounding automobiles in the country. Any North Korean able to obtain a vehicle today is likely an elite member of the Workers’ Party of Korea, making cars a symbol of societal status and wealth.
Much of the country’s transportation policy (at least, what the outside world can see) caters heavily to these elite drivers. Though road quality is poor in much of the country, wide boulevards are prominent in cities and expressways connect population centers. Cyclists, though plentiful, are required (at least on paper) to obtain licenses to pedal and are banned from using roadways. And in Pyongyang, young women selected for their beauty direct drivers through town, giving “Level of Service” a whole new meaning to the (primarily male) elites behind the wheel.
Thus, it’s no surprise that automakers such as Hyundai and Kia, emboldened by the current round of détente, are among the South Korean companies yearning to enter the North Korean market.
Ready for a series of ads in which famous Korea Central Television (KCTV) news anchor Ri Chun-hee tells us that, thanks to her new Hyundai Santa Fe, she now takes her family to the beach on the weekends instead of announcing the government’s latest missile test? As any car commercial-bombarded American TV viewer understands, the auto industry knows how to play the freedom card, and a newly-opened North Korea will fall right into their wheelhouse.
What might North Korean post-car transportation look like?
The decision to pursue post-car urban transportation should be one the North Korean people make, not yet another directive an oppressive force imposes on them. When their country opens to the outside world, it will be up to transportation industry stakeholders – like us – to ensure they have the proper information and policy knowledge to make this decision. Even following political reform, given its infantile economy North Korea will likely depend on international sources to fund its initial infrastructure initiatives. Thus, we need to think through exactly what the transportation of the future will look like, as well as how to implement it in a society that will just be starting to modernize.
There’s no way I can craft a full white-paper proposal for such a transportation network in a short article like this. I don’t even feel comfortable suggesting which Pyongyang Metro extensions should be prioritized, since I’ve never been to the city. But as I continue to think through the possibilities, I’m keeping a few main things in mind, based largely on the key aspects of successful multimodal systems that we regularly highlight here at Mobility Lab:
- Fast, frequent rail and bus service on primary corridors, easily accessible via foot or bicycle, including extensive bikeshare options
- A customer-friendly approach to system operation and management, featuring good communication and readily available real-time information
- Smaller vehicles (including both shared and single-occupancy options) providing first and last mile transit access in outlying areas and door-to-door paratransit service throughout cities without inhibiting development around transit hubs, necessitating neighborhood-destroying urban highways, or congesting central areas
- Infrastructure that effectively accommodates economic necessities, such as delivery trucks and industrial equipment – but not at the expense of other modes
Photo by Stephan.